By Huweida Awad Ahmed
The truce that allowed the parties to the conflict—between the United States and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other—to catch their breath was never intended to establish peace, sign treaties, implement conditions, lift sanctions, or even develop a future vision to resolve the ongoing dispute.
After Trump announced a large-scale operation to forcibly open the Strait of Hormuz, Iran responded by warning that any military or civilian vessel approaching the strait without prior coordination would be sunk. Conflicting reports have since emerged about ships being attacked by Iran. Meanwhile, more than a thousand vessels remain stranded in the Arabian Gulf, with around 20,000 sailors effectively trapped in the region. Approximately a quarter of the world’s oil trade has been disrupted.
The so-called “Freedom Project” aims to reopen the strait and release the trapped ships. The U.S. fleet has already begun active movements. On the other side, Iran has laid a belt of naval mines across the strait, deployed coastal missile systems, and mobilized swarms of drones, maintaining full readiness for confrontation and determined to retain control over the waterway.
The major gamble undertaken by Trump—risking the lives of American soldiers—raises a critical question: will it achieve its objective of reopening the strait? Or is it merely a diversion to occupy Iran in the strait while executing a deeper, broader strategy targeting Iran internally—striking critical infrastructure, weakening its capabilities, and destabilizing the state from within, possibly paving the way for a large-scale ground intervention?
Despite Iran proposing a 14-point initiative to end the conflict—most notably demanding that no vessel approach the strait without its permission—it has received no support from the European Union or even maritime insurance companies. As a result, tensions continue to escalate, and Iran effectively maintains the upper hand in controlling navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
Can U.S. warships realistically escort every vessel passing through the strait to ensure safe passage? And for how long can such a situation be sustained?
The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), under Admiral Brad Cooper, has announced the establishment of a joint operations framework (MFC), coordinating between the State Department and CENTCOM. This system focuses on monitoring, coordination, and issuing warnings, identifying relatively safer maritime corridors, and transmitting secure navigation coordinates to vessels. It is supported by an aerial and naval umbrella for emergency response. This approach appears to be the most viable alternative to traditional escort operations, which are currently impractical given Iran’s high level of vigilance and tightly executed control measures.
From a military standpoint, reopening the strait through direct confrontation with Iran’s sophisticated defensive measures has become extremely difficult.
The “Freedom Project,” in essence, focuses on identifying and securing relatively less dangerous routes—particularly those with fewer mines—then communicating these coordinates to ship captains through a joint maritime command center, alongside operational guidance and deterrence coverage.
Currently, vessels are being directed toward the Omani coastline in the southern part of the strait, which is considered less risky. However, the real challenge lies in navigating over a thousand massive oil tankers through a narrow passage—an extremely dangerous logistical and navigational operation that could lead to catastrophic consequences at any moment.
Washington faces intense political pressure domestically to demonstrate that it is reopening the strait and safeguarding global oil trade, while simultaneously dealing with severe military risks, including the possibility of Iranian retaliation under any pretext.
The massive media campaign surrounding the “Freedom Project” presents Trump as a savior of global trade, despite being seen by critics as a key instigator of the conflict from the outset. His earlier objectives—such as halting uranium enrichment or gaining control over Iranian oil—have not been achieved. Now, a new narrative is being introduced: reopening the strait and restoring smooth passage for global oil tankers.
The deployment includes 15,000 U.S. troops, 100 aircraft, missile destroyers, and drone systems—reminiscent of previous large-scale operations. The aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, along with approximately 20 ships and destroyers such as Frank Pitsen and Michael Murphy, entered the strait in early April on a preliminary mission to clear mines, signaling readiness for execution of the operation.
Additionally, a U.S. Marine battalion of 2,500 troops has been deployed aboard the USS FSB. Despite this extensive buildup, a critical vulnerability remains: the lack of effective mine-clearing capabilities. The U.S. military relies heavily on missile defense systems, with insufficient development and production of naval mine countermeasure vessels.
Even under peaceful conditions, clearing the strait of mines could take months. Under current circumstances—with Iran fully mobilized and on high alert—it is virtually impossible. Therefore, avoiding mines and navigating narrow safe corridors is faster and more practical than attempting full clearance.
Despite its enormous military capabilities, the “Freedom Project” faces relatively simple but highly effective Iranian countermeasures: intelligent mine systems, unmanned underwater vehicles, swarms of suicide drones, ballistic missiles, and coastal drone-based missile platforms such as the “Qader” system, hidden within mountains and underground tunnels.
The immense financial burden on the U.S. military in sustaining such an operation contrasts sharply with Iran’s relatively low-cost defensive strategy, as it operates within its own territory using innovative and adaptive tactics—potentially shifting the balance in its favor.
However, if there is a parallel operation targeting Iran’s civilian interior behind the façade of the “Freedom Project,” the situation could become far more complex and escalate beyond control.
